Primary PREDICTIONS

If you have never visited elections.hawaii.gov and reviewed their archive of election data, you might be surprised at how much info there is. There is tons, going back two decades. if you are curious about these things, I highly recommend it. Here is a link to their elections results page.

Of course, any time you start looking at mountains of data, you gotta take some time to study that data, to begin to make sense of it, and reflect on the voting behavior and trends it documents. But when you do, Hō! You might be astonished at the extraordinary degree of very specific predictions — voter behavior — can be extrapolated from it. I certainly was.

This advance knowledge, is not just interesting, it is quite valuable. When you know these things ahead of time to a fairly high degree of certainty, savvy campaigners can make crucial decisions — in terms of targets and tempo — on how to run an effective campaign.

A few examples:
• there will be more than 45k voters registered by the Primary, a new record
• voter turn out will be more than 5% higher than the average of 40%
• more than 20k will cast votes in the primary, also a new record
• 70% of the voters in the primary will be EARLY vs DAY-OF
• in the council race, the top seven will get 12,000-6,000 votes
• any candidate getting less than 3,500-3,000 will likely not make the cut
• in the Mayor’s race, any candidate w/less than 5k votes is Pau

If you dig deeper, you can constrain these numbers even more tightly, and infer all kinds of other outcomes. How is any of this possible? It’s all in the data — if you know where and how to look.